Bombay Durpun - Crunch time for EU's long-stalled Mercosur trade deal

Country representatives will vote on the divisive accord in Brussels, likely paving the way for it to be inked in Paraguay next week, more than 25 years after negotiations were launched.

The European Commission sees the deal as crucial to boost exports, support the continent's ailing economy and foster diplomatic ties at a time of global uncertainty.

"It's an essential deal, economically, politically, strategically, diplomatically, for the European Union," commission spokesman Olof Gill said on Thursday.

But Brussels has failed to win over all of the bloc's nations.

Leading the opposition is key power France, where politicians across the divide are up in arms against a deal attacked as an assault on the country's influential farming sector.

President Emmanuel Macron confirmed late Thursday that France will vote against the treaty, saying France's political forces were "unanimous" in their rejection of the deal.

Paris and its allies seemed short of a blocking minority, but the vote could go down to the wire.

The deal would create a vast market of more than 700 million people, making it one of the world's largest free trade areas.

Part of a broader push to diversify trade in the face of US tariffs, it would bring the 27-nation EU closer together with Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay, removing import tariffs on more than 90 percent of products.

This would save EU businesses four billion worth of duties per year and help exports of vehicles, machinery, wines and spirits to Latin America, according to the EU.

"This is the biggest free trade agreement we have negotiated," EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said Wednesday after 11th-hour talks to allay the concerns of some member states, describing it as a "landmark" pact.

- 'Enormous benefits' -

Germany, Spain and others are strongly in favour, believing the deal will provide a welcome boost to their industries hampered by Chinese competition and tariffs in the United States.

"We have in our hands the opportunity to send the world an important message in defence of multilateralism, and to reinforce our strategic position in a global environment that is more and more competitive," Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in December.

But France, Poland and Ireland oppose it over concerns that their farmers would be undercut by a flow of cheaper goods, including meat, sugar, rice, honey and soybean, from agricultural giant Brazil and its neighbours.

The pact needs to be green-lit by at least 15 of the European Union's 27 member nations representing 65 percent of the EU population.

Italy is widely believed to hold the decisive vote.

Having demanded and obtained a last-minute delay in December, Rome struck a more positive note this week, saying the accord offered "enormous benefits".

Failure to sign off on the deal could spell the end of it: Brazil last month threatened to walk if the EU kicked the can down the road.

- 'Parmesao' no more -

Over the past months, the commission has been at pains to reassure farmers and their backers that pros outweigh cons.

It has made a series of concessions, including plans to set up a 6.3 billion euro ($7.3 billion) crisis fund and safeguards allowing for the suspension of preferential tariffs on agricultural products in case of a damaging surge in imports.

Sefcovic has stressed the accord is expected to boost EU agri-food exports to South America by 50 percent, in part by protecting more than 340 iconic European products -- from Greek feta to French champagne -- from local imitations.

"We will no longer have 'Parmesao' competing with Parmesan cheese," Italian agriculture minister Francesco Lollobrigida said on Wednesday.

Still, French farmers rolled into Paris on tractors and their Belgian colleagues blocked major roads across the country in a show of anger against the signing on Thursday.

Ignacio Garcia Bercero, a former top EU trade negotiator now with Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said the deal's advantages were self-evident.

"Even more important is the geopolitical signal of EU readiness to reinforce relations with Latin America," he told AFP. "Failure to sign will condemn the EU to irrelevance and fundamentally undermine its external credibility".

P.Mueller--BD